Rumor: Nikon D3s

Rumored Specs

Date: 10/13/2009
Source: NR

Rating: 3/5, Votes: 1

According to NR, here are the latest rumored specs:

• Better ISO-performance (ISO 200-12800 probably)
• New 1.2 crop mode
• Bigger buffer
• Motion-Jpeg 720p (no 1080p!)
• Improved AF-ON button
• Improved multi-dial
• No 14 fps, I repeat no 14 fps

Our Opinion: The imminent arrival of a D3s is all but guaranteed - however "s" models usually constitute a modest update, and always stick with the same basic sensor. Given that:

• Better ISO performance - no doubt the sensor and associated processing will be improved given it's two years since the D3 emerged. However ISO 102,400 represents a full two stop improvement - that is massive, meaning if ISO 102,400 rivals ISO 25,600 on the current D3, then the "improved" sensor can get get the same results with a quarter of the light hitting it - that is a monster step forward. Rumors have also started circulating that a Canon 1D Mark IV will be released later this month, also capable of ISO 102,400. So either both are playing a marketing numbers game and are putting these modes on the cameras with inferior results for bragging rights, or there has been a major step forward in sensor technology that has been kept very quiet (or somewhere in between - after all it appears the 5D Mark II sensor from Canon is a derivative of the 1Ds Mark III sensor with much improved high ISO abilities). Or, the rumor is just plain wrong.
• Bigger Buffer - this $500 2Gb upgrade to the D3 becoming standard in the D3s makes sense, a lot of pros complain about the buffer being too small.
• Nikon seem stuck at 720p, so this could be true. In fairness, most pro's who want video are photojournalists and the end result will be a video clip posted to a web site, and 720p is fine for that. For serious video use 1080p is needed, all depends on who Nikon want to buy the camera.
• No 14 fps - the 14 fps rumor started on a site claiming Nikon were achieving 14 fps by adding a third EXPEED processor, which never made sense - a third processor will address data throughput, however the site originating the rumor completely ignored sensor blackout time and the effect it has on the cameras ability to AF (the AF doesn't work when the mirror is up). The current D3 keeps AF up until 9 f.p.s., and the 11 f.p.s. DX modes is manual focus only. If the D3s does indeed have 14 f.p.s. it will almost certainly be in a crop mode, and will almost certainly not support autofocus - and you won't see much through the viewfinder unless they've done serious work to the mirror assembly. A smaller increase in f.p.s. would not be a surprise though.

Source: NR on 10/13/2009.

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Misc Sightings

NR is showing pictures of a taped "D3 type" camera in Barcelona, and pictures from a Paris Expo that they claim shows a covered sign advertising the D3s.

Source: NR on 10/13/2009.

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Oct 15th, 14 fps

NR are claiming 99% probability of a D3s on October 15th, based on "Ok, rumors are flying fast this weekend"

NR reiterates earlier rumors that it will be 14 f.p.s. with 1080p. I'm still struggling with the shutter blackout time at 14 f.p.s. and how on earth they will get it to autofocus? Unless it's either a mirror-up mode, or like the current D3 where autofocus doesn't work when it does 11 fps in DX mode ...

Source: NR on 9/30/2009.

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November 3rd

NR pointed us to an Australian site, Cameratalk.com.au, which claims insider information including:

• The D3 production has been discontinued.
• D3s will be announced early October.
• They claim, or possibly speculate, 1080p and 14 fps frame rate.
• Due to hit stores November 3rd

The wording is interesting (words like "proposed" and "indication") implying that at least some of this is speculative: Nikon's video implementation is currently very crude, so to bring out a camera that as they claim would outgun the 5D Mark II - if they had the ability to do that, then surely the recent D300s would have had better video? (either that, or delay the announcement and announce it in parallel with the D3s, in the same way the D300 and D3 were launched together).

The other point that stretches the imagination is the increase in frame rate from 9 fps to 14 fps, which they claim is possible with the addition of another EXPEED processor. What they forget is AF and shutter black-out time are the limiting factors here - going faster than 9 or 10 f.p.s. is certainly possible, but the AF tends to stop working - so for this to be true either the black-out time when taking a shot has to drop dramatically, or the D3s comes with a big AF improvement.

The other flag is they claim the information is from a software developer are a research facility connected with Nikon - typically the developers, while having deadlines, don't typically have access to the confidential release and product shipment schedules.

Source: Cameratalk on 9/18/2009.

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£4,500

NR points to a digital wedding forum, where a poster claims:

So says an ‘industry-source’ I know (who’s been on the money for all the releases of the last 2 years). It’ll be to the D3 what the D300s is to the D300 (ie. essentially the same but with video and buffer upgrades). RRP is expected to be £4,500.

We are expecting the US price to stay at the $5k mark for MSRP for any D3s - street price for the D3 is currently around $4,300.

Source: NR on 9/18/2009.

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Early to Mid October

1001NoisyCameras is pointing to a story, which claims two of their sources say the D3s is coming in the first two weeks of October...

Source: 1001nc on 9/18/2009.

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Thom Hogan Prediction

After the recent and likely fictional Nikon Roadmap Leak (see Nikon Roadmap in our forums for the full translation), Thom Hogan has put together his speculated "Possible Nikon Roadmap".

Note Thom does have good sources, and a pretty good track record when it comes to predicting Nikon products, so his version of the roadmap is probably best described as "educated speculation".

Thom speculates early 2010 for the D3s release. He expects the D3s to add the extended buffer, add sensor cleaning, no major changes otherwise.

His full roadmap with a lot more background info and explanation can be found by clicking the source link below.

Source: Thom Hogan on 7/14/2009.

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D3 Update in Autumn

According to NR, the successor to the Nikon D3 (likely called either the D3s or D3h) will come this Autumn, still at 12mp, but with a dust shaker.

Source: NR on 6/30/2009.

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July 30 or August 4

According to the google translation of a page on kamerabild.se, Nikon have set press conferences for July 30 and August 4, suggesting that 2 DSLR's will be announced a week apart. One is likely the D300s, the other either a D60 replacement or possibly the anticipated D3 update.

Source: kamerabild.se on 6/17/2009.

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