Given that Nikon launched the D700 with the D3 sensor a few months after the D3 launch, when the D3s launched, speculation began that a D700s may also be imminent. However over a year and a half have since passed, and there is no hint of either a D700s or D700x.
The D4 is likely to be announced this summer, and pretty much everyone now expects Nikon to eventually replace the D700 with a new camera, likely called the D800, meaning a D700s is now very unlikely.
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NR has published an email from a Canon shooter detailing his conversations with Nikon about Switching brands (see source link below for full details).
Bottom line, he claims to have been told that there will be no Full Frame body in 2010.
Furthermore, he was told by a Nikon NPS Rep that there would be no pro level full frame body until after March 2011 (i.e. next fiscal year), probably with a split up of the line in s and x.
Our Take: From reading the published email, it's not 100% clear that "pro level full frame body" refers to the D700 line, as the person who emailed NR implies. Indeed, we fully expect a D4 to come out in 2011, so this timing seems exactly right for the D4. However if that is true, the "s" version of a camera is usually used to identify an incremental improvement (i.e. D3->D3s, D300->D300s, D70->D70s), rather than a new camera. Where an "s" and "x" version would make sense would be with the D700 (i.e. D700s with the D3s sensor, and D700x with the D3x sensor). However this is in contrast with the D800 and D900 rumors that have been rampant recently...
That confusion aside, there are numerous rumblings that there will be no D700 update/replacement this year, and numerous others that say there will. The consensus also seems to be that Canon will not release a 5D Mark III until next year also, so Nikon aligning their release schedule to Canon's would make sense, and the "prosumer full frame" line doesn't yet have a release history since it consists of a single camera, the D700.
Bottom line, we believe the "no full frame until 2011" to be believable based on the information we have seen from multiple sources. That said, we also wouldn't be surprised if a D700s and/or D700x came out very soon as multiple other sources have hinted. We simply haven't seen anything yet that comes even remotely close to convincing us one way the other... In the mean time, the D700 is a truly outstanding camera, unless you need video.
1001NoisyCameras is linking to a Quesabesde posting, the translation of which claims "unofficial sources" say there will be no D700 replacement until 2011.
Without any further info on the source, it's hard to comment. From one perspective, not moving the D3s sensor down into a D700s protects D3s sales (the D700 took some flak for hitting D3 sales early on), yet a high-res with video FX body in the sub $3k price range would be very well received, especially in light of the Canon 5D Mark II success.
Thom Hogan has published his 2011 predictions (see source link below).
He is predicting a D800 to announced by end of March 2011 (No D700s or D700x). He expects the sensor to be in the 18-24mp range, capable of 4-5 f.p.s. Furthermore, he predicts it will have a 100% viewfinder (unlike the D700), and use the EN-EL15 battery (like the D7000) and have an optional MB-D12 grip.
That seems like a reasonable prediction. Timing is hard to gauge, and may to some extent depend on the timing of Canon's upcoming 5D Mark III. The 100% viewfinder means a bigger prism (more weight, cost), so perhaps not if the goal is to keep the camera smaller.
According to Nikon Direct, the Nikon D700 will soon be sold with as a kit with the newly announced 28-300mm lens. While by no means conclusive proof, if Nikon are investing in new packaging and promotion of a new kit, this would imply that the D700 is likely to be a current camera for at least a few more weeks, if not months.
DigitalRev claims one of their sources says Nikon is going to skip the D700s, so they can make a bigger impact with a 16mp D800 (with the same specs as the D3s other than megapixels).
The go on to list specs including ISO 102,400 and 1080p video, and claim it will be announced by the end of this year.
The D3s was a big step in terms of noise performance. This proposed D800 would be another big step (keeping the same noise levels but with the much smaller photosites needed for a 16mp sensor). While (barely) within the realms of possibility, we'd be surprised if a D800 with these specs was announced before the end of the year.
Thom Hogans current home page (April 19th if it's moved to his archives by now) suggests that the D700 replacement date is unknown, since the the D700 is the first of its line and has no history of gaps between releases.
However, his Nikon Announcements page (see source links below) suggest either a D900 (higher megapixel) being announced in April (to coincide with Nikon's financial year and projections), or a D700s (D700 refresh with the sensor from the D3s) in August.
This appears to be highly speculative on Thom's part, as opposed to being based on any inside information, however it does make a lot of sense. Sometimes Thom gets it right, sometimes he gets it wrong. What is completely missing is the D700x (D700 with D3x sensor, which Thom originally stated would be here for mid November last year, then claimed sooner than that, then it disappeared from his projections completely when it failed to materialize).
Thom Hogan is speculating the D700s will likely come in the 1st Quarter of Nikon's financial year (which means April, May or June 2010). This is currently on his homepage, or look under his "Mar 20" updates once his homepage has been refreshed.
Previously in his 2010 predictions he slated the D700s for "By Nov 2010" and a high res (but not called D700x) version by the end of March 2010.
NR has posted an anonymous "tip" (rated at 60% probability by NR) that the D700 replacement will have 12Mp, better video than the D3s and dual cards slots, available before the end of June. More info by clicking the source link below.
NR is boldly predicting two new DSLR's from Nikon will be announced today, Feb 21st, at PMA.
If correct, both the D90 and D700 are about at the 18 month mark, so they are just entering the window where they might be updated. Other possibilities are a much anticipated high-res FX body (D700x, D800, D900), or possibly a hybrid/EVIL camera.
While possible, we'd be surprised if this was true, and it would be the most tightly guarded launch from Nikon in recent memory.
Thom has updated his 2010 predictions (from the best we can tell, these are based largely on speculation combined with some likely reliable inside sources).
He puts the announcement by November 2010, basically updating the D700 the same way as the D3s updated the D3.
If Nikon decides to split the prosumer FX body lineup the same way they have the pro lineup (D700s being the high speed camera, the D700x/D900 or whatever it will be called being the high resolution model), then this makes a lot of sense. However if they decide to go with a single model replacement (keep the speed of the D700, but up the resolution and ISO to have a "one body does it all solution"), then we think this unlikely. Time will tell...
NR is reporting numerous countries offering cash back, free grips etc with the Nikon D700, some of which run through June 30th 2010. This would put the earliest logical date for a D700 replacement at July 1st (exactly 2 years after the D700 announcement).
We posted this commentary/opinion a couple of weeks back as to Nikon's options in supplementing or replacing the excellent D700 (D700x plus D700s, or a single replacement D800) - not a rumor as such, but a relevant discussion as to what Nikon may do, and why.
In a Q & A session with Peter Giesen from Nikon Germany, he claims "the D700 has been introduced only last year, and we won’t have a successor in the near future”.
Now this makes perfect sense, Nikon appears to be on an approximately 2-year cycle with its pro and prosumer lines, meaning a D700s should arrive around summer 2010. Add to that the fact that the D700 followed the D3 by about 9 months, and we are expecting a D3s imminently, so that also puts the D700s next summer with some of the features that will be appearing in the D3 (presumably video).
However NikonRumors also takes this comment to mean no D700x is imminent - huh?
The rumored D700x is no more a successor to the D700 than the D3x was to the D3. If you want a do-it-all, take pictures in the dark at 14-bits and 8 f.p.s., then the D700 (and its successor) is your camera. If you want higher resolution, but don't care about the frame rate or the ability to shoot in available darkness (i.e. you prefer studio and landscape work over photojournalism, sports shooting etc), then the rumored D700x is for you. These are two very different cameras aimed at two different markets, so claiming no D700x because Nikon says no D700 successor soon makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.