There are a couple of very interesting threads on DPReview (here and here), speculating on Nikon’s potential product roadmap (or lack thereof), and in particular on the recently rumored Nikon D300s. The threads are pretty long, fueled by opinion from the usually well informed Thom Hogan, who even has the Nikon Rumors admin on the defensive at one point in one of the threads.

Up until a week ago, everyone was expecting a Nikon D400 later this year, following the 2-year release cycle for the DXXX bodies, based largely on the 2 year run the Nikon D200 had. However, as Thom and others point out, the D100 followed the D1, the D200 followed the D2, the D300 came at the same time as the D3, so wouldn’t it make sense for the D400 to come out at the same time (or slightly after) the D4? Following that line of thought, the pro line appears to be on about a 4 year release cycle, so does that put the Nikon D400 into late 2011?

So what does that mean? By 2011 the Nikon D300 would be very long in the tooth, especially since it lacks video, so roll in a Nikon D300s using the same sensor: add video and a couple of other features (maybe even a small improvement in IQ, taking what the Nikon D90 can do a small step further perhaps), and you’ve kept your 2-year release cycle and your pro and prosumer lines in sync. Suddenly the idea of a Nikon D300s makes a lot of sense.

Throw in people getting tired of upgrading every couple of years, especially given these economic conditions, and the fact the Nikon D300 doesn’t really have a direct competitor from Canon (the EOS 50D is somewhere below the D300 and above the D90 in most peoples opinion), and everything fits.

If the rumors are to be believed, the Nikon D300s will have 720p video with Autofocus, which is clearly a step up from the Nikon D90, but a 1080p mode would make the camera a lot more compelling, taking the fight directly to the Canon 5D Mark II on the video front: 720p would feel like a missed opportunity – many buyers base their decisions on easily understandable numbers (megapixels, ISO range, video resolution), especially if in recent years they’ve researched/bought flat screen TV’s or Bluray disks and settled on 1080p. And don’t forget, if Canon release a 60D later this year with 1080p video, that will compete directly against any Nikon D300s.

Based on these recent developments, if I were a gambling man, from looking at the rumors, what the competition is doing, and how Nikon traditionally rolls out products, I’d have to bet on a D300s in the next few months, and the D400 most likely in 2011 or whenever the Nikon D4 comes out.

Now if only they can squeeze 1080p video into the Nikon D300s…

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