A few months ago we published our prediction for Nikon DSLR releases this year (see Nikon DSLR’s in 2010). We are now over half way through the year, Nikon has yet to release a new DSLR, so it’s time for a quick update. Here is what we previously predicted for this year:

1) D3xs to replace the D3x, adding video, and possibly ISO and other improvements.
2) D700 to be replaced by either a D700s/D700x combo or a higher resolution D800 with a new sensor (all options with video).
3) D90 to be replaced with D90s, with an outside chance of a new sensor in a D7000.
4) Remote (?) possibility of an EVIL camera announcement around Photokina in September.

What has changed since then? Lets go through these one by one:

1) Nikon D3Xs:

Nikon updated the Nikon D2X with a D2Xs, they also updated the D3 with a D3s, so it follows that a D3Xs makes sense around the time the D3x turns 2 years old (which is December this year). Does this still hold? Well, lets consider the following that may impact Nikon’s decision:

a) Canon’s current high-res pro body (the 1Ds Mark III) is lower resolution, ISO, and on most levels is inferior to the D3X. So from that perspective, Nikon has no current reason to release a D3Xs upping the ante. However a Canon 1Ds Mark IV is due, rumored to be somewhere around 32 megapixels, which may give the D3X a serious run for the money. Looking at Nikon’s timing over the past couple of years, they announced the spectacular D3s right before the Canon 1D Mark IV release, and the video enabled D90 immediately before Canon’s video enabled 5D Mark II.  If Nikon does have a new, significantly improved D3Xs up their sleeve, announcing it around the time of the impending 1Ds Mark IV release, or even just before, fits their pattern perfectly.

b) The Nikon D4 is widely expected next summer (2011). That implies a high-res D4X would also come at some point after that.  Now the D3x came well over a year after the D3 (rumored to be due to problems getting the sensor performance), so that puts a potential D4X some time around mid to late 2012.  If Canon make a huge step and leapfrog the D3X with the 1Ds Mk IV, then focusing efforts on an earlier release for the D4X and skipping the D3Xs makes a lot more sense. If this is the case, there could be no D3Xs and the  D4X could arrive some time late 2011 or early 2012.

c) Rumors Sony are considering dropping their FX sensors/cameras according to Thom Hogan. The D3X is based on a more highly developed version of the sensor made by Sony and used in their A900 camera. If the rumors are true (with emphasis on the *if*), then the decision hasn’t been made, and almost certainly it’s too late to impact a camera that is fairly advanced and scheduled for release later this year – indeed if Nikon are planning a D3Xs at Photokina or even later this year, chances are test copies are already out there being used by select pro’s. Even if this rumor is true, it’s highly unlikely it will impact a D3Xs if it’s already in process.

Given the above, we are now less confident that a D3Xs will be released this year. There is currently no pressure for Nikon to release it. However if Canon releases a higher spec 1Ds Mark IV (and they are expected too), Nikon has two ways they may respond: (i) Announce a D3Xs about the same time to try and steal some of Canon’s thunder), or (ii) Leave the D3X as is, and try to accelerate the release of a D4X to be closer to the D4 release.

If it does happen, possible announcement dates for a D3Xs are (a) Photokina in September, (b) December around the second anniversary, or (c) about a week before the Canon 1Ds Mark IV.

2) D700 Replacement/Supplement:

There are three potential cameras Nikon can release here:

(a) Nikon D700x to compliment the D700. This would presumably bring the D3X sensor into a smaller D700 body, the same way as the D700 used the D3 sensor.

(b) Nikon D700s updating the D700 with the sensor from the D3s body.

(c) A D800 (or D900) with a new sensor, rumored to be around 16-18mp, as a more general purpose camera trying to fill the demand from both sports shooters and landscape/studio shooters.

Given the above, both (a) and (b) make sense based on Nikon’s history of re-using sensors in lower end bodies (think D200->D80->D40x->D3000, or D300->D90->D5000, or D3->D700). However timing on these is usually about 9 months apart, give or take a couple of months. If a D700X was going to happen, the ideal time would have been fall 2009, so it’s now nearly a year overdue.

A D700s should be due/overdue about now, but the D3s is in very short supply (possibly because Nikon could be using the sensors to build up a D700s inventory, possibly for a host of other reasons/problems, none of which would bode well for a D700s).

A D800 (or D900) camera that offers a new sensor with a compromise on resolution and frame rate would also make sense, making for one less camera to support in the sales channel (compared with fielding both a D700s and D700x), and being closer to Canon’s 5D Mark II offering (presuming it would have advanced video).

The other consideration, is the original Canon 5D was current for over 3 years. Rumors out of Canon claim the 5D Mark II is also expected to have a 3 year life cycle, and various Nikon reps are on record as saying ‘No D700 replacement this year’. The D700 passed its second birthday earlier this month.

So what do we expect here? It’s possible Nikon hasn’t even decided yet, so this is very hard to predict. If a D700X was coming, it should have been here a while ago. A D700s should be here about now. If the next camera is a D800 (or other name), then the 3 year schedule makes sense and it may be next summer before anything is announced. If anything is going to be announced here, we’d expect it to be anytime between now and Photokina in September. If nothing is announced by Photokina, then we suspect the 3 year release cycle claims to be true and chances are we’ll see nothing to replace or update the D700 until around next summer, probably around the time a Canon 5D Mark III is announced.

3) D90 Replacement:

The D90 turns two years old in a couple of weeks, so a replacement is expected between now and Photokina in September. What would the replacement look like? There are two ways we can see this going:

(a) D90s: Based on the same 12 mp sensor, but with a brand new, second generation video implementation from Nikon (1080p). The D90 was Nikon’s first attempt at video on a DSLR, so its replacement is a logical place to debut the next gen video solution. Other evidence that supports this approach is the fact that the D300s re-used the same sensor as the D300 (and D90), so launching a D90 with a significantly better sensor (higher resolution or better ISO) would marginalize the D300s, with the D400 replacement not expected for another year.

(b) D7000: Basically a next generation camera with a brand new sensor. We haven’t heard much about a new sensor out of Nikon, and traditionally in the consumer models Nikon sensors have been based on the Sony designs. If this is released we’d expect a big step forward: perhaps a sensor with more megapixels (probably 14-18mp range), similar or even slightly better high ISO than the current D90 for example, and significantly improved video.

Whatever is released, we still expect it to be this year, to retain or improve on Nikon’s D90 as a still camera, and to become Nikon’s leading DSLR video solution. Ideally Nikon would announce this camera ahead of Photokina in September, so an announcement any time now would make sense. However if information we are hearing from what appears to he a very credible source is true, Nikon are having a lot of problems with video on the ‘new D90′: this both reinforces our belief the D90 replacement will be positioned as Nikon’s leading DSLR video solution, but also means the release may be delayed – by how long we don’t know – the D3X was very late when it finally came out, but it was worth the wait.

4) Some Kind Of EVIL or Similar Camera:

Other than a few patent filings, there has been very little of substance with regard to an Electronic Viewfinder/Interchangeable Lens (EVIL) camera from Nikon. Sony recently launched their solution (NEX Cameras), then also launched a video body that uses the same lenses, revealing their strategy. Canon has recently been very vocal about smaller DSLR’s to compete with Sony, micro 4/3rds etc (note these will not necessarily be EVIL cameras). If Nikon is going to announce anything here, Photokina in September is the most likely place to do it (and if so, most likely an announcement with the cameras being available just before Christmas at the very earliest). However we also wouldn’t be surprised if Nikon doesn’t announce anything here until next year.

5) New Entry Level Nikon:

Earlier this year we thought it unlikely that Nikon would announce a new entry level DSLR, given the D5000 and D3000 last year. However the D3000 sales have been disappointing, and in such a high volume space (D90 and below typically make up around 90% or more of Nikon’s unit volume on DSLR’s), Nikon may have to take action here. According to NikonRumors, they claim a 99% chance a D3100 is coming with a video optimized 10mp CMOS sensor with 1080p video. The current D3000 has an aging 10mp CCD sensor (which first appeared in the D200 in 1996), so if true this is a brand spanking new sensor.

Given the D3000’s dissapointing sales, a new entry level DSLR this year makes sense. However given Canon’s recent launches are 15mp plus, is launching a new 10mp sensor a massive mistake in a mass-market segment where specs sell cameras? The current D3000 doesn’t have video, so would it make sense to launch the strongest Nikon video solution yet on the absolute bottom of the line camera? The specs given a 99% by NikonRumors would also devastate Nikon D5000 sales, unless someone really wanted 12mp over 10mp (but then the video solution on the D5000 wouldn’t hold up in comparison). While a new entry level DSLR from Nikon wouldn’t be a surprise (in fact given D3000 sales it’s almost essential), the rumored D3100 specs being 100% true would surprise us. But then we’ve been surprised before…

In Summary:

We are now much less confident the D3Xs and a D700 update will happen this year. Canon’s plans for the 1Ds Mark IV will have the most significant impact on what Nikon does with regard to a D3Xs, and the D700 may well be on a 3 year release cycle.

D90 replacement we expect any time, with the biggest change being revamped video. If what we are hearing about Nikon having a lot of problems with the new video solution are true, then the announcement could be delayed weeks or even months, but this camera is about due.

Nikon needs to do something with the D3000/entry level lineup. While it’s possible they may be almost ready with an EVIL (like Sony) or ’small DSLR’ (like Canon) camera, Nikon often trails on new technology, especially if it involved a new lens mount. Putting out a D3000 replacement (possibly the rumored D3100 or similar) is a much faster and more likely solution in our opinion.

Spent the past couple of weeks on the road, mostly in the Rockies (hence the lack of updates to this site recently), now back in town for a couple of weeks, so it’s time to get caught up.

First of all, following up on the previous post:

Overall, very happy with the Canon S90 replacing the Nikon D90/18-200mm as the go-everywhere combination with kids in tow. Sure the S90 has more shutter lag, so you have to anticipate shots more, and yes, it doesn’t have the focal length range, so obviously it misses some shots that the D90 would nail. On the other hand it’s easier to use and allows me to interact with the kids more (climbing over rocks etc), so it also got shots that I wouldn’t have got with the D90 because of it’s bulk. Perhaps more importantly, the kids enjoyed it more when I’m not lugging a DSLR round during the day. Overall, I’ve gone from one compromise to another for a “go everywhere” setup, but I’m definitely happier with the S90 in this role than the D90.

As for how other gear performed:

The Gitzo GT5541LS with the CB Gimbal is absolutely brilliant (providing you don’t have to hike too far) with a big lens, a sheer joy to use. Spent half an hour at one point shooting marmots at an oxygen starved 12,000 ft – switching between one group of marmots fighting and others sunning themselves on random rocks. Using the CB Gimbal is effortless, and combined with the Gitzo is about as stable as you can possibly get with a gimbal setup.

For lighter duty use, the ultra-light Feisol CT-3442 Tripod is a life-saver, or at least a back-saver. Easy to use, fast to set up, and remarkably stable considering it’s distinct lack of weight. The only one issue I had was one of the anti-rotation leg sections miraculously started rotating about half way through the trip, which was a minor annoyance. Providing you loosen/tighten the legs in the right order you’d never notice. Upon returning home and cleaning the tripod, something inside the leg ‘clicked’ back into place while rotating it, and it has now fixed itself – will keep an eye on it to see if it happens again.

As for tripod heads, in addition to the CB Gimbal I took the Photo Clam Multiflex, Foba Superball, Photo Clam PC-44NS and Acratech GP. The ball heads all performed admirably, but as the trip went on, and to my surprise, I found myself gravitating towards the Multiflex more and more.

After heavy use, the Multiflex has gone from “I think I like it” to “I absolutely love it”, with a couple of caveats. On the good side, it makes composing shots and keeping the horizon straight simple, especially when using the virtual horizon feature on the Nikon D700 to level it. Combined with a Hejnar Photo Rail and Clamp, single row panoramas become fast and simple.

I’m still having issues with the lower panning base on it though – the built in knob is too small to easily operate the lower panning base. On the big Gitzo the removable large knob simply doesn’t fit, and on the Feisol it doesn’t fit properly. As a result, I found myself tightening the panning base before installing the Multiflex on a tripod, and then setting up the tripod with the front of the Multiflex square to the subject and not using the lower panning base at all.

I also found myself not using the large knob to level the Multiflex either – instead I found myself using both hands, one on each side of the unit, to rotate the knobs on either side to level the platform. This works extremely well, however at one point, perched on the edge of a cliff, while adjusting the Multiflex I felt something hit my chest then heard it hit the rocks below the tripod – I’d left the large knob attached, and while adjusting the other stage it knocked it off. Fortunately it didn’t go over the edge. Shortly after that it managed to fall off and get (temporarily) lost in the back of the car while driving down a rough dirt road. From that point on, I basically used the Multiflex without the large knob, keeping the lower panning base locked and the upper loose, and the more I use it, the better it gets. For nature/landscape photography, I definitely prefer it to a ball head.

As for the cameras, everything worked perfectly with two exceptions:
* On some sand dunes, the Canon S90 failed to fully open the built in lens cap at one point. Powering it off and blowing sand off it solved that problem. A short time later it failed to even try to focus twice in a row. The third attempt at powering it off/on solved this. Again this was in extremely sandy conditions with the wind blowing.
* A week before the trip all my lenses were working. Did a final test on the day before the trip, and the Nikon 200-400mm f4 would not focus on the D300 – the AF was basically dead. On the D700 it focused intermittently. Not ideal the day before a trip, no time to send it off to Nikon, but I spent 20 years using manual focus cameras, so not a show stopper. Initially thought the AF motor may be bad, but thoroughly cleaned the contacts on the lens and both bodies and applied DeOxIT, and it appears to have solved the problem completely.

Pictures from the trip will be posted in the next few days.

Now the D90 is gone and the D300 is being used exclusively for telephoto/macro use, it’s time to sell our remaining DX lenses. If anyone is interested, we take payment via paypal, and shipping is included in the price to CONUS. All are USA models:

• Nikon 18-200mm VR (older version) – $550. Very good/Excellent overall condition, no marks on glass. Does have some barely visible dust inside the lens if you look really hard, doesn’t appear to impact the optical performance at all.
• Nikon 12-24mm f4 – $645. Has had very little use.
• Nikon 18-105mm zoom – $250. Like new – came as part of a kit with the D90, other than fitting on a camera to make sure it works the lens has never been used. Has not yet been registered with Nikon.
• Nikon ML-L3 Remote – $12.

If you are interested in any of the above, shoot me an email at steve@dentonimages.com.

Whether you are a pro or an amateur, your shooting patterns and camera needs change over time, as new technologies emerge, clients and markets change, or even as your family grows or lifestyle changes. As such, it makes sense to periodically review the contents of your gear bag and realign your kit to your shooting needs. With the kids off school for the summer, that is exactly where I find myself today.

Stepping back and looking at what I’m shooting compared to a year ago, there are numerous differences. I’m now doing a lot more studio work than I was before. Since starting the Tripods and Support Gear Guide over the winter, I now have tripod and head setups that I actually use (my previous Manfrotto 055MF4 + 468MG setup is a good general setup, but it wasn’t stable enough for telephoto work, and was heavy enough that if usually got left behind). And perhaps most importantly, my kids are growing up and getting more active. So how does this affect my camera gear?

Let’s start with my current setup. For a couple of decades, I’ve always had a 3-camera setup: constantly changing lenses in the field can lead to missed opportunities and excess crud on the sensor with a DSLR. As such, for the past 18 months I’ve had a D300 mostly living on the back of my 200-400mm lens, or occasionally on a 105mm Macro. The D700 usually lives on a 24-70mm, 70-200mm or on an f/1.4 prime. That leaves the D90 as the backup, with a 12-24mm for wide-angle work, or with an 18-200mm as a “light” kit for outings with the kids etc (in fact, the D90 with 18-200mm frequently gets stolen by She Who Must Be Obeyed, to the point she refers to it as her camera).

Next, lets look at how these get used. For studio work, any of the bodies work at base ISO, the preference being for the D700 for extra shallow depth of field, and low light focus ability in a darkened studio. D300 is the studio backup. The 24-70mm and 70-200mm lenses are the workhorses, supplemented by the primes. No changes needed there.

For serious wildlife/nature shooting, the current setup is typically the D300 with the 200-400mm as the workhorse. The D90 with the 12-24mm lens attached for any landscapes. Then the D700 with a mid range zoom getting minimal use, except in bad lighting conditions.

Then comes family trips: On day trips with the kids, the D90 with 18-200mm lens gets great results, but also gets in the way. After all, the focus of a day trip with the kids should be enjoying what little time you have with your kids as they grow up. While having some nice pictures to remember the trip, you don’t want to be the parent getting impatient with the kids who just want to enjoy themselves, while you pose them and fiddle with camera settings and stress about light in a crowded setting… As such, and with the kids getting more active and excitable, the D90 with 18-200mm combination is no longer working for me in this role.

For vacations, I personally love road trips and national parks. For serious photography, I’m going to leave the kids in bed and be up before dawn with the heavy lenses and a tripod. Then the rest of the day, driving round enjoying the sights with the kids and taking snapshots (after all, you’re not likely to be satisfied with your landscape shots taken from crowded viewpoints by the side of the road in the harsh mid-day sun, and animal sightings are much less likely during those times anyway). Again, the D90 with 18-200mm combination is overkill for these times, and can seriously get in the way (your 5 year old daughter wants to sit on your shoulders to see better, or your 7 year old wants to go climbing amongst some rocks – with an expensive DSLR round your neck that could get damaged, you often think twice…)

Given the above, its time for a change. I remain extremely happy with the D300 and D700, so they will remain. The D90, while an excellent camera, has to go. My biggest problem with the D90 for serious work has always been its low light focusing, which has typically relegated it to the landscape camera for nature work. I’ve also been extra cautious with the lack of weather sealing for nature photography. Hauling a DSLR around on a day out with the kids detracts from the experience for both the kids and myself as far as I’m concerned, and in that situation the kids are more important. So the D90 is going up for sale today. The 18-200mm lens will be up for sale shortly, once I’ve published the review of it. The void will be filled with a Canon S90 – a compact, pocket-able, high quality camera that can help record memories on fun days out with the kids, yet more importantly slides into a pocket and won’t get in the way. It should also serve well for scouting locations during the day, where I can go back with a tripod and pro zoom the next morning at dawn to get the shot/lighting I really want.

From that follows on several other changes:

• That leaves me with only two bodies for the first time in many years. If I were to get another body today, it would probably have to be the D300s for telephoto work. However short term I’m going to try living with just two bodies, at least until Nikon come out with a higher resolution full frame body that doesn’t cost $8k: A higher resolution FX camera would be ideal for studio and landscape work, and would put more pixels on the subject with telephoto work as a backup to the D300.
• With the D300 as my prime telephoto body, the D700 becomes my landscape camera. The 12-24mm lens is a DX lens, so that needs to go, to be replaced with the 14-24mm. I’ve been looking for an excuse to buy that lens for a while.
• With the D300 as the remaining DX body, primarily for telephoto work, and the next body I’m likely to buy being FX (if a D400 comes out, that will replace the D300 for telephoto work only), then I’ve basically eliminated my use for all my DX lenses, and my “light” kit combinations. That means along with the 18-200mm and 12-24mm, the 18-105mm DX will also go. Possibly the 70-300mm as well – while an excellent FX lens, from the above, I just don’t see myself using it any time soon.

Overall, I’m eliminating my “light weight” combinations (D90 and DX lenses), beefing up my setup for serious work (adding 14-24mm straight away, then the 24mm f1.4 and 600mm f4 lenses when I can justify them), and switching to the S90 for casual use so I can focus more on my family. Right now this feels like the right thing to do, I’ll report back in a few months detailing how it actually works out.

In the mean time, if anyone is interested in any of the following (all USA models), shoot me an email: steve@dentonimages.com

• Sold Nikon D90 Body Only (only 6,900 actuations, mostly in a studio, comes with all manuals and accessories): $675
• Sold Nikon 70-300mm VR Lens (comes with box & paperwork): $400

In a few days once I’ve finished the reviews the following will also be available:

• Nikon 18-200mm VR DX Lens (comes with box & paperwork): $500
• Nikon 18-105mm DX Lens (basically unused, mounted on a camera perhaps twice, the D90 was only available in kit form when I bought it, never used the lens): $225
• Nikon 12-24mm DX (comes with box & paperwork): $600

Payment by Paypal only, I’ll even include free shipping to the lower 48.

After letting go of my Nikon F’s and F3HP’s a few years ago, I’m finally being dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century. Both myself and DentonImages.com are now on facebook:

Presenting the DenonImages.com FaceBook Page

Also Steve Denton on FaceBook

Updates will be fairly slow, mainly when a new review is posted or a major event happens.

I recently took the following picture as an example of how not to match a ball head to a tripod for Tripods and Support Gear Guide:

Just for fun, posted it on a forum this morning. Someone asked to see it with my 200-400mm and a gripped D700. Checked my insurance was up to day, and took the following. Must be a slow day:

Panning is a little rough…

We are almost a quarter of the way through the year, the CES, PMA and WPPI trade shows have come and gone, and still nothing even remotely concrete pointing to any new DSLR’s coming from Nikon. So what should we expect this year?

Let’s start with Full Frame. The D3s is only a few months old, we don’t expect a D4 until the middle of 2011 at least. However the D3x turns 2 at the end of the year – a refresh in the form of a Nikon D3xs wouldn’t be a surprise at some point later this year. If Nikon have worked as hard on the D3x sensor as they did with the D3 sensor, then a noticeable ISO improvement and competent video would be in order. When might this be released? The D3x doesn’t turn 2 until December, so perhaps Photokina at the end of the year might be a good place to showcase it? Although in recent years Nikon has also timed their announcements well to steal thunder from Canon (for example the D90 coming out as the first video enabled DSLR right before the Canon 5D Mk II, or the D3s with its mega-ISO capability trumping the high-ISO abilities of Canons next generation flagship 1D Mark IV). Given a new flagship Canon 1Ds Mark IV is due any time between next week and later this year, timing a D3xs launch to Canon’s fits Nikon’s recent history. Either way, we’d be very surprised if we didn’t see an upgrade to the D3x before the end of 2010.

What about the D700? That also turns 2 years old this summer. We are pretty sure something will happen here during the summer months (anywhere from May to September would be out guess), but what? There are two basic approaches Nikon could take here, both have there advantages and disadvantages:

1) Given Nikon’s pattern over the past few years of maximizing their sensor investment by re-using sensors in lower end bodies, replacing the D700 with a D700s (with the sensor and video functionality from the D3s), and also launching a D700x with the D3x sensor fits. However we have heard noises that both the D700 had a negative impact on D3 sales, and there hasn’t been a D700x due to fear of the impact it would have on D3x sales. Now if the D3x is replaced with a D3xs, then having a D700x with the older D3x sensor would have much less of an impact, but a D700s would still cannibalize at least some of the D3s sales.
2) Replace the D700 with a D800 with a new sensor (likely 16-21 mp range). This stops impacting the D3 series sales as much (if you want speed and ISO you go with the D3s, if you want resolution then the D3xs, with the D800 being more of a “do both well but not nearly as well as the pro bodies” compromise). This adds cost by introducing a new sensor, but creates more separation between the pro and prosumer lines.

At this point in time, we wouldn’t want to put money on Nikon taking either path. The D700s/D700x approach allows Nikon to maximize their investment in existing sensors in line with their recent history, while a D800 approach helps differentiate from the pro lineup and gets them closer to a Canon 5D Mk II killer in one body.

What about a Full Frame Sensor in a D90 type body? Now that would be a surprise this year. Canon doesn’t have anything Full Frame below the 5D Mark II (Sony does, but hey…). In fact, Canon is still using crop sensors in their flagship 1D Mark IV, so we don’t see any reason why Nikon would push a Full Frame sensor into a cheaper body in the near future.

So we expect this to be a fairly big year for FX bodies – a D3xs and either a D700s/D700x pair or D800. But what about DX?

The prosumer D300s is still new, we don’t expect a D400 until 2011. The D90 however turns two later this year, and is due an update. This will likely come either in the form of a D90s (same sensor, better video with AF, possibly other improvements), or a new sensor in a D7000 (the “upper” range always starts with a 7 – the D700 as the full frame prosumer body, and the D70 as the first of the current “advanced consumer” line). We think a D90s is the more likely. Why? There are several reasons: (1) Sony and Nikon are very tightly linked in their sensor development for DX bodies, and we haven’t heard anything reliable yet about a new sensor. Presumably any new DX sensor would appear in a Sony A700 replacement first, then be developed further before being put in a Nikon body. (2) If Nikon does come out with a new sensor, it should be a big step forward (more resolution, better ISO, or both) or it’s not worth doing. Having a D90 type body with significantly better IQ than the D300s isn’t exactly going to enhance the Nikon line-up and make their prosumer customers happy – any new DX sensor we’d expect introduced in next years D400.

What about the consumer lines? Neither the D5000 or D3000 are very old. The D3000 uses the sensor that was introduced way back with the D200, so there is an argument for retiring that body early, but if the sales numbers are there we don’t expect any surprises here. So for DX bodies, we expect a fairly boring year, just a D90 update, most likely in the form of a D90s, with an outside chance of a D7000.

So it that it? Well there is one wild-card. There has been a lot of buzz in recent months about the hybrid or EVIL (Electronic Viewfinder Interchangeable Lens) cameras like the Olympus PEN cameras. Various projections show this “better than compact cameras, but smaller, lighter and cheaper than DSLR’s” market segment is going to be very significant over the next few years. Sony has gone on record saying they will be making cameras for this target market. Canon & Nikon are sure to follow, and what better place to make a big splash than at Photokina in September? There are various patents filed (but patents don’t always mean products, just that Nikon are researching technologies), and Nikon has stated that such hybrid cameras will require a different mount, but we haven’t heard anything even remotely concrete here.

In summary, we expect the following for 2010:
1) D3xs to replace the D3x, adding video, and possibly ISO and other improvements.
2) D700 to be replaced by either a D700s/D700x combo or a higher resolution D800 with a new sensor (all options with video).
3) D90 to be replaced with D90s, with an outside chance of a new sensor in a D7000.
4) Remote (?) possibility of an EVIL camera announcement around Photokina in September.

2011 should be a much more interesting year, with the D4/D400 due, and a complete refresh of the consumer lineup in order (likely with EVIL cameras playing a big role).

The impressive Nikon D700 turns 2 years old in the Summer of 2010, which is about retirement age for modern DSLR’s. Rumors and speculation are rife as to what will replace it, and earlier this month Nikon sent out a survey to registered D700 owners (myself included) asking questions about what users actually want from their cameras. The survey had a heavy focus on questions about megapixels (one question asked should it be 24mp, stay at 12mp, or in the 18mp range), as well as questions about the importance of autofocus, ISO capabilities, dynamic range etc.

The rumored (speculated?) contenders that have been floating around are the D700x, D700s and D800. Let’s take a look at each:

Nikon D700x
The Nikon D3x was launched in December 2008. In recent years, Nikon has continually developed and reused sensors, often bring out the same sensor in a lower end body around 9 months later. For example, the D200 sensor (or a derivative thereof) found its way into the D80, then D40x, D60 and is still being utilized in the D3000 today. The sensor from the D300 formed the base for the D90, the D5000 and then D300s. The sensor from the Nikon D3 found its way into the D700 (and then a heavily developed version back into the D3s).

Based on this pattern, it’s an easy jump to predict a D700x – basically the 24mp sensor out of the D3x in a D700 body. This camera would not replace the D700, but rather complement it in the same way the D3x compliments the D3(s) – the D700x with its high megapixel count and slow frame rate would be ideal for the landscape/studio photographer, while the D700 is a better low-light, sports, and general photojournalism camera.

However since the launch of the D3x, we’ve maintained that the D700x is a very difficult camera for Nikon to launch from a business/marketing perspective: The D3x has an M.S.R.P. of $3k over the D3, so would a D700x have to maintain a $3k premium over the D700 making it a $5k-$6k camera? Not if they want to be competitive – Canon gets you 21 megapixels for $2,700 with the 5D Mark II, and Sony gets you to 24 megapixels for under $2k with the A850 – so to compete here the D700x would have to be around or a little above the $3k mark. It’s also widely believed that the launch of the D700 hurt high-margin D3 sales. If a D700x did come out, that would likely have a similar, or even bigger effect on D3x sales due to a wider price differential.

The other question that has to be on Nikon’s mind, is can current market conditions really support that many “pro” quality cameras (D300, D700, D700x, D3s, D3x)? While from an engineering standpoint the D700x makes a lot of sense, from a marketing/business standpoint, it may make sense for the D3x sensor to stay in just the D3x (just as the D2x sensor was never reused).

Nikon D700s
Given the recent D3s, if Nikon does what it did with the D3, we should expect the D700s some time in the first half of 2010 – basically an updated D700 with the revised sensor and video functionality out of the D3s. From an engineering standpoint and maximizing your return on sensor development, that makes a lot of sense. However, that will likely hurt high margin D3s sales in the same way the D700 hurt D3 sales. The D700 is undoubtedly a success for Nikon as a camera in its own right, but whether a D700s emerges depends on how Nikon’s upper management saw the bigger picture after factoring in the cameras impact on the D3.

Nikon D800
The rumored D800 is a brand new camera, and if real, will replace the D700 in Nikon’s lineup. If the rumors are true this camera will have a brand new sensor, somewhere around the 18mp mark. Pure speculation, but Nikon have shown what they can do with the sensor in the D3s, so having an 18mp body with similar ISO characteristics to the current D700 should be very doable, with a similar, or perhaps a very modest drop in frame rate (more data to process per image, but then the processing power should increase over the D700 too).

From a business perspective this makes a lot more sense. If you want the absolute highest megapixel count, you have the D3x. For low light/high speed work, the D3s is it. Then the D800 becomes a much more rounded camera, capable of bringing the fight to Canon and Sony in the $3k or less prosumer FX market. An ~18 megapixel, 6-8 f.p.s. body with ISO 25,600 at a competitive price point could be used for studio, landscape, sports, photojournalism and so forth and make a lot of people happy (except possibly people that have just bought a D700).

In Summary
Nikon basically has two approaches here – (1) continue their recent trend, and release a D700x soon and a D700s next summer, making a “mini D3x” and “mini D3s”. They then have to support two cameras in the marketplace. Or option (2) release a single do-it-all (but-not-as-well-as-the-pro-bodies) D800, with more megapixels, and at least similar ISO and frame rates as the D700 it will replace.

The first option is easy to do, but Nikon’s management have to look at how badly the D700 hurt the D3’s sales, will the market support yet another $3k+ camera in their lineup, and the costs of supporting an extra body in their manufacturing, distribution and support chains. The second option goes some way to protect sales of their pro bodies, simplifies the model lineup (and the customers decision process – do I need the D700s or D700x?), and means they only have to support one body in that space.

It’s tough to call, but if we had to bet, an ~18 megapixel D800 in summer 2010 makes a lot of sense and solves some problems for them, despite the costs of developing a new sensor. Given this months survey, it appears Nikon may not have finalized the decision yet, so for now, enjoy the amazing Nikon D700:

Over the past few posts we’ve covered in some depth where the major 3 players in the DSLR space are (Nikon, Canon & Sony), but what about the others?

Both Pentax and Olympus are steadily releasing consumer grade DSLR’s, but as the years go by they appear to be falling further behind – the investment needed to develop a state of the art DSLR is immense, you are now developing a state-of-the-art electronics product. Combined with the current economic woes, there is a good chance we may see some of the smaller players either consolidate in an effort to contain costs, or fail completely – indeed Hoya’s management have gone on record more than once recently, claiming Pentax may need to find a partner to survive and that Pentax may no longer belong under the Hoya umbrella – a far cry from the Pentax we knew 20 years ago (indeed the first SLR I ever used was a Pentax SP1000).

Given Canon is currently introducing new technology, and Nikon is currently releasing updates/improvements to existing models, we expect Canon to have the technological edge for the next 18 months or so, until the Nikon D4/D400 come out. Because of this, we also expect Canon to stop losing market share to Nikon as they have been the past couple of years, maybe they’ll even gain a little back. However with Sony’s aggressive pursuit of the consumer DSLR market, we expect both Canon and Nikon to give up further market share to Sony (worth mentioning, is over 90% of Nikon’s sales is sub $1,000 cameras – the D90 and below.) The next big innovation from Sony we expect is video – Sony has extensive expertise making both pro and consumer video gear, so when they add video to their DSLR line-up, expect them to do it right and be equal too, or possibly ahead of Canon. Nikon will likely take several more years to get video right on their cameras, but they will get it right.

Sony’s next move may be to try and introduce a pro model DSLR – this is a risky move, but they have very successful pro video cameras in the market. However breaking into the pro camera market that has been dominated by Nikon & Canon for decades won’t happen overnight. Their lens line-up also needs beefing up for that to happen.

Another threat is the so-called ‘Hybrid’ camera market, small mirrorless cameras that take interchangeable lenses like the Olympus EP-1. These cameras are small, relatively cheap, “better than a point & shoot but not quite a DSLR” cameras, and if you are never planning to go pro probably sufficient for the vast majority of your shooting, and certainly less intimidating than some DSLR’s currently on the market. So far only Olympus and Panasonic have offerings out there, but that will change, and that may transform the entry-level DSLR market completely over the next few years – given that’s where most of the sales volume for all the big three comes from, at some point they’ll have little choice but to compete in that space.

As the Chinese curse goes, “May You Live In Interesting Times”…

Roll the clock back 20 years, and Nikon was the pro camera. Canon had a very strong reputation in the consumer market, but for pro cameras, Nikon was it.

Then technology started creeping in. First it was autofocus, Canon was more aggressive than Nikon, and some pros started to switch. Then came Image Stabilization – again Canon got their first with a usable implementation, more pros moved over. Then came digital sensors, and by the time you got to the 2004 Olympics in Athens, virtually every pro you saw there was shooting Canon.

Nikon always fires back, and a couple of years later Nikon always comes out with technology that equals or beats the current Canons, and the game of leapfrog continues – you only need to look at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing to see that suddenly there were as many pros shooting D3’s as there were 1D Mark III’s. Indeed, with the Nikon D3’s low light abilities and autofocus system, the D3 has been the pro camera to have for the last couple of years.

This week saw the release of the Canon 1D Mark IV, which on paper matches the new Nikon D3s’s ISO 102,400, while offering 10 fps at 16 mp (vs 9 fps at 12 mp for the Nikon), and with a shiny new autofocus system that Canon insiders believe will set the standard for years to come… About 2 years in our estimation, until the Nikon D4, which will probably then be surpassed by the Canon 1D Mark V a year or so later, and so the game continues.

Out of the big 3 DSLR players currently (Canon, Nikon and Sony), Canon is the clear leader in the latest DSLR trend – video. While many purist shun video on DSLR’s, the fact remains the role of the traditional newspaper photographer is changing – newspapers are downsizing or closing, and the focus is switching to other mediums to deliver news – the internet, iPhone etc. Which means being able to send out your photographer to get video clips as well as still pictures is becoming increasingly important – indeed if DSLR’s don’t add video, media outlets could well switch to using video cameras and pulling still frames out of the video – how many web pages or iPhone apps actually display images larger than a megapixel? On the consumer end, being able to have a single camera that can produce high quality prints as well as make videos of your kids at Disneyworld is compelling too.

When it comes to video on a DSLR Canon is the clear leader. Nikon actually got there first, with the manual focus 720p implementation on the Nikon D90 mere days before Canon introduced its superior 1080p solution on the 5D Mark II. In the year or so since, both companies have continued to evolve their video solution – both systems are clearly capable of producing professional results in the right hands, but Nikon is still stuck on a more crude 720p implementation.

Sony on the other hand, has a tremendous amount of experience when it comes to video cameras, and has yet to put video on a DSLR – various comments from company executives have indicated they believe they will have to, and you can be sure when they do finally introduce it, they will do it right.

So far in 2009 Canon has introduced on 3 new DSLR bodies – the 1D Mark IV, 7D and 500D (T1i) – fewer than either Nikon or Sony.

However these three Canons out-spec their equivalent Nikon’s in all the important areas. Because two of these are brand new, how they perform in the real world remains to be seen, but since they are newer technology than the Nikons, they should perform very well indeed.

While Nikon this year has mainly been introducing “updates” in the form of “s” models to existing cameras, Canons offerings have represented major steps forward, and we expect this to start to reverse the losses in market share than Canon has given up to Nikon over the past couple of years.

Canon has also lost significant market share to Sony on the consumer DSLR end recently – unless Canon starts aggressively launching consumer models to go head to head with Sony, this is a trend we may see continue.

In 2009 so far Canon has released 5 new lenses – a couple of low volume tilt & shift lenses, a new 100mm macro, and a pair of consumer EF-S lenses:

Going forward, a Canon 1Ds Mark IV being released within the next six months or so is pretty much a given – almost certainly in the 30 megapixel plus range, to unseat the Nikon D3x. For the next 18 months to two years, we expect Canon to have a slight advantage in the pro/prosumer DLSR market over Nikon, an advantage Nikon has enjoyed for the last couple of years, and probably won’t enjoy again until the release of the D4/D400. It’s a constant game of leapfrog, and has been as long as I can remember.

To halt the overall slide in Canons market share, what they really need to do is bring the fight to Sony and firm up their entry level offerings – the XS and XSi are getting old, and Sony is aggressively targeting the consumer – Canon execs have to be taking notice.

Sony bought an ailing Konica Minolta in early 2006. Sony has enjoyed a long relationship with Carl Zeiss, using the excellent Zeiss glass in their camcorders since 1996, so extending that partnership with Zeiss to include lenses for their new line of DSLR’s was an obvious step. Combine that with a massive marketing effort, and an attempt to consumerise DSLR like only an electronics manufacturer like Sony could, in less than 3 short years Sony’s market share has come from nowhere to the high teens. This is staggering, especially given the global economy, and means that they currently sell one DSLR for every two Nikons and two Canons sold – a fact that must have those two companies worried.

Canon and Nikon have traditionally taken a top-down approach – they’ve been engaged in a contest for pro photographers and bragging rights as the best DSLR for decades. Traditionally the consumer DSLR buyer has bought on reputation – if they see pro’s using a particular brand, it must be good so they buy the consumer models, even though they are often a far cry from the pro models in terms of both specifications and quality. Nikon in particular introduces technology at the high end, and filters it down to lower/cheaper models over a period of years. The best example of this is probably the sensor in the D200. Several months later it emerged in the D80, then D40x, followed by the D60, and it is still kept alive thanks to the recent D3000 almost 4 years later.

Sony’s coming from the polar opposite direction, and it’s working. Just about everyone has owned something Sony at some point in their life, whether it’s a Walkman, Point & Shoot Camera, PlayStation, a Stereo or a TV – Sony already has a very strong brand, and if you invest in Sony gear you can be pretty confident they are in it for the long haul. So when Sony comes into the market with a very strong brand and competitively priced and spec’ed gear, people buy.

Sony put a 24 megapixel Full Frame sensor in the A900 camera for $3,000. Nikon (who partners with Sony for sensor development and manufacture is some areas) developed the sensor further, and introduced a derivative of the same sensor in their $8,000 D3x. Sony has recently put the 24 megapixel A900 sensor in the sub $2,000 A850, so if all you care about is megapixels, Sony delivers at a quarter of the cost of Nikon.

So far in 2009, Sony has released 6 new bodies, all under $2,000 – the A850, A550, A500, A380, A330 and A230. In the same period Nikon has released only three sub $2k cameras (D300s, D5000, D3000), and Canon only two (7D, T1i/500D).

In addition, Sony has released five new lenses so far this year (28-75mm f2.8, 18-55mm, 55-200mm, 50mm f1.8 and 30mm f2.8 Macro).

Rather than going for bragging rights and relying on the reputation of the cameras at the high-end, Sony is aggressively going after the consumer, and successfully getting them to part with their hard-earned dollars, at the expense of market share for both Nikon and Canon.

So what is next for Sony? Rumors abound about a potential pro-DSLR being worked on, and they have only just introduced live-view into their cameras. Despite their extensive experience with camcorders, Sony have yet to introduce video onto their DSLR’s, and you know when they do introduce it they will do it right, unlike Nikon’s current attempts to put 720p video on a $5,200 pro body.

Over the next few years, we expect Sony to continue their aggressive push for market share by targeting the consumer, while adding new features in frequent releases. We also believe Sony will starting to go after the pro market, and chances are they will succeed – they’re already a dominant player in the pro-video market. Will they catch Nikon and Canon? It’s too early to tell, but both Nikon and Canon need to look long and hard at their consumer line-up, and prepare themselves for war on a battlefield that right now Sony is defining. Maybe we should send both Nikon and Canon a copy of “The Art Of War”.